Many of the polls countrywide will tell you that this year’s Presidential Election will be close. Most have the election coming down to swing states like Arizona, Georgia, and Michigan. However, according to a recent poll done by Emerson College, things may be close in some other states as well.
In a study released on September 6th, polls showed that Texas and Florida would have Trump prevailing by a small margin. It showed that Trump would win by four points in Texas, 50% to 46%, and win by five points 50% to 45% in Florida, which happens to be Donald Trump’s home state.
During the 2020 election, Donald Trump won Texas by 5 points and Florida by just under 4 points. The last time Florida voted Democrat was for Obama in 2012, meanwhile, Texas has not voted blue since 1976 when Jimmy Carter got a majority of votes.
According to thehill.com’s Presidential Forecast, Donald Trump has a 74% chance of winning Florida in November. In their research, they added this very interesting snippet, “Donald Trump, who changed his residency from New York to Florida in 2019, won Florida by 3.4 percentage points in 2020, an increase from his 1.2% margin in 2016. This shift, largely attributed to increased support from Latino voters—particularly in Miami-Dade County where Biden’s margin shrank to just 7.4 points compared to Clinton’s 29.4 points in 2016 and Obama’s 23.7 points in 2012—occurred despite Trump losing reelection nationwide and polls predicting a narrow Democratic victory. More recently, Republicans swept all statewide offices by double-digit margins in the 2022 midterms. Consequently, Florida is widely expected to lean Republican in the 2024 election.” If this reigns true yet again in 2024, Trump should be able to maintain a huge state for him and that will be sure to have a massive impact on the election.
